Overall, given the sensitivity of infrastructure performance to climate and that decisions on design and renovation have long-lasting implications which are hard to reverse, assessing the climate risks to infrastructure must therefore be a priority. Furthermore, there is limited flexibility once built. Infrastructure is typically associated with large capital costs and with lifespans of 30–200 years. In the UK alone, the National Infrastructure Plan sets out £300 billion of planned investment across all sectors of infrastructure by 2020/21. Globally, $2.5tn a year is currently spent on infrastructure. Climate change can thereby alter the design life of infrastructure and the effectiveness of the services it provides. This will be compounded by increases in the frequency of severe weather events, such as flooding, which will lead to increased disruption of infrastructure. a rise in average temperatures) will reduce the capacity and efficiency of some infrastructure. Ĭlimate change will alter average weather conditions and the nature of extreme weather in the UK and globally.
The importance of infrastructure and the significant impacts from its disruption are echoed in other extreme weather events around the world. A year later, more floods disrupted electricity supplies for tens of thousands of people, caused the failure of a number of bridges, and disrupted mobile and broadband communication networks. During the winter of 2013/14, storms in the UK led to loss of power for over 150 000 homes for significant periods of time, closure of Gatwick Airport, disruption of rail/road travel including complete severance of the South Devon Main Line in Devon for two months, in addition to general damage to buildings and to other infrastructure assets. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused substantial damage to New York's infrastructure networks however, loss of the services these networks provided magnified other economic losses and also hampered recovery efforts. For example, inundation of water treatment plants and electricity distribution substations left hundreds of thousands of people without power and water in southwest England. The current variability in climate already compromises infrastructure performance, and disruption or complete failure of these services causes significant adverse social, economic and environmental impacts. Infrastructure provides the critical services such as heating, lighting, mobility and sanitation that are essential for modern society. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities.
Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2☌ and 4☌ global warming respectively. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2☌ is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4☌ rise could triple UK flood damage. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society.
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